Should you decide that the conflict in Ukraine is likely to vanish without a trace, then it would indeed be wise to re-evaluate your viewpoint. The issue remains challenging and unfolding in a way that can surpass those of a political thriller by having too many unexpected developments. Meanwhile, Ukraine is fighting for survival, and the rest of the world is navigating the perilous game of trying to anticipate the next move.
The hostilities are still very harsh and relentless. The Ukrainian troops were forced to pull back recently from the salt mining village of Soledar in the Donbas area. In such a case, sacrifice of human lives and reorganization along the new defensive lines become the priorities instead of giving up by choice.
The opposing sides have hailed themselves as winners. Still, some experts think that the Soviet town’s taking is more of a symbolic gesture than one with any strategically vital implications. The main battle is at a place close to the captured town, and the frontline situation after months of inhuman fights is almost the same.
With each struggle, no matter how insignificant in terms of territory gained, a very high price is paid. The region’s villages and facilities have been severely affected by the conflict, and innocent people continue to suffer as the missiles land and cannonades do not distinguish between them and the soldiers. However, war is not only fought on the battlefield.
The stakes are as high, if not higher, for the hostilities that, besides being on the battlefield, take place in the realm of politics and diplomacy. While seeking ways to regain influence in America, one of the first moves the ex-U.S. executives are likely to take is circulating proposals of so-called “peace plans,” mostly neglecting real security for a maximal concession policy.
These plans are about Ukraine giving up some of its land to be permanently disarmed and stripped of alliances, to be the easiest target for the future aggressor. To say that the ghosts of former deals that turned out to be unreliable, even in the event of security and protection, are haunting the leaders in Ukraine might not be an exaggeration.
On the one hand, a new dimension is being added to the complexity of conflict by the emergence of resource negotiations as a decisive factor in Ukraine. Scenarios paint a picture of extensive foreign access to the mineral resources of Ukraine, i.e., rare earths, energy reserves, and port revenues to be traded for military aid and security assurances. However, there will be a clear need for protection against the likelihood of human greed in the bargain.
Even in the event of deals being struck, it’s still a question whether the plans can be implemented or not. To begin with, most of the infrastructure in the country is antiquated, the data of the reserves is quite obsolete as well, and the country, which is in turmoil, is not a safe place for making financial investments. Although the gesture is still meaningful, the money that is coming from abroad is not just a simple donation, but it is attached with expectations and conditions, which is a departure from the way aid used to be provided.
Thus far, Ukraine is in a quandary about this. Its way to getting into formal alliances has been arrested by political doubts in foreign countries, thus making bilateral security guarantees the most probable solution. The possibility of renewed attacks is still hanging over every talk, and the consequences of the instability zone reaching far beyond Ukraine’s borders make the ripple effects even more dangerous.
Millions of people have been forced to leave their homes, cities are destroyed, and the rhythm of daily life is still marked by death and insecurity. The leaders are overloaded with the most severe problems. President Zelensky, now in his 40s, must make choices not only about the future of his country but that of the whole of Europe. The people who are always around him see the moment when these burdens weigh on him.
The war in Ukraine is at a turning point, which is the single fact that becomes evident to the whole world as it watches. The following stage will be unforeseeable, with very high stakes and great consequences, and will be felt far from the battlefield. The country exercising its freedoms, advancing in war, and moving negotiations forward are all greeting the nation and people of Ukraine with consequences, thereby reminding the world that in tough times, survival is never assured.