Up to now, Iran’s efforts to upgrade its armed forces have been limited by sanctions that have been imposed on the country for many years, preventing the country from acquiring new advanced military hardware. To keep their fighters going, Iranian fighter aircraft have been using outdated American and Russian aircraft, a handful of old-style Cold War-era airplanes.
The latest sanctioning of the sale of Russian Su-35 fighter jets to Iran is a significant feature of Tehran’s military endeavors and realignment of the power balance in the region. With UN sanctions expiring in 2020, Iran was subsequently poised to seal conventional arms deals, and the Su-35s were at the forefront of its modernization plan.
Iran-Russia strategic cooperation has grown more robust in the recent past. Russia, increasingly isolated from the Western markets because of its wars, turned to Iran for assistance and purchased hundreds of Iranian drones for export. Moscow, on its part, committed to exporting advanced platforms such as Su-35 fighter jets, Mi-28 attack helicopters, and Yak-130 trainers to Tehran. The transaction has alarmed the American and regional allies, who view the increased military cooperation as a destabilizing influence throughout the Middle East.
The Su-35, with roll-out in 2014, is a generation-after-next air-superiority fighter with high avionics, thrust-vectoring engines, and variable weaponry payload. To Iran, whose military air presence is comprised largely of old F-4 Phantoms, F-5 Tigers, and MiG-29s, the Su-35 would be a quantum leap. Iranian authorities have also commented on the deterrent potential of these planes, speculating that they provide more room for the nation to protect its interests and advance its presence in the region.
It is not an easy task to incorporate the Su-35 into the Iranian fleet of aircraft. Pilots and maintenance crews need to be trained on extremely advanced radar, electronic warfare, and weapons systems. Logistics and maintenance problems are also of major concern, as Iran’s current infrastructure will not be capable of hosting such highly developed aircraft. Integration with older aircraft will involve communications, data link, and command net enhancements, which will make operations planning more complex.
The response in the region has been immediate. Israel, whose military continues to have the most sophisticated air force in the Middle East, views Su-35 purchases as an unmistakable provocation. Israeli officials had reportedly been pushing Moscow to reverse or postpone the sale out of concern about strengthening Tehran and its allies in Syria and Lebanon. Gulf Arab nations, already concerned about Iran’s missile and drone capacity, are reassessing their defense, some purchasing sophisticated weapons like the F-35 from the West.
For the West, the sale is a demonstration of sanctions and arms embargoes’ ineffectiveness. While UN restrictions legally lapsed to enable Iran to buy conventional weapons, acquiring top-of-the-line fighters and other systems is stirring fears of regional security. The controversies have been defined on whether more preventive action is necessary to restrict the spread of cutting-edge military technology.
Despite all the news centered around it, the near-term regional impact of Su-35s is not straightforward. Iran will be qualitatively enhanced in air weapons rather than quantitatively. With less than a couple of dozen planes anticipated for delivery, Israel’s arsenal, bolstered by fifty or so F-35s and hundreds of other cutting-edge aircraft, remains technologically well ahead. Su-35s will increase Iran’s defense and deterrence, but will not attack Israel or US forces in an open war.
Politically, the agreement is a pragmatic compromise between Moscow and Tehran. Russia wants to counter Western influence in the area and secure the services of an experienced, proven ally, while Iran wants to update its military without getting too deeply involved in Russia’s geopolitical struggles. Both countries seem happy with a loose, transactional relationship, as opposed to a formal, full-fledged alliance, so that each may enjoy the freedom of action to act independently.
Inthe the coming years, Iran-Russia defense ties can move closer to co-production abilities, further intensified drone and missile cooperation, and integration of cutting-edge systems. Issues persist—delivery speed, technical assistance, and potential political crisis likelihood.
To local strategists, Russian Su-35s in Iran do not signify more than an arms sale—it signifies a harbinger of shifting alliances, shifting deterrence requirements, and a time of more uncertainty in regional security.