The conflict in Avdiivka is a very clear representation of what the war in Ukraine has turned into: a struggle to wear down the enemy, manage logistics, and keep morale, alongside a fight of tanks and artillery. After the combat had been mostly static and positional for several months, the Kremlin gave the order to its troops to take Avdiivka, with the intention of wrapping around the city and tipping the balance in the Donbas area. Their move was largely dependent on numbers alone—great swarms of poorly trained and minimally equipped soldiers were brought to the front in a manner that several analysts have described as “human wave” attacks. At that time, American officials said that the Russians appeared to be willing to pay very large death tolls for racking up only small amounts of territory.
The war took a horribly heavy toll on humans. Ukrainian military leaders reckoned that the number of Russian soldiers killed and wounded was almost 47,000, of which as many as 17,000 were fatalities. However, after all those sacrifices, the city ended up under the Kremlin’s control. Analysts were wondering if the gains made were worth the cost. According to the British Ministry of Defence, the destruction of over 400 Russian tanks was the result of the Russian-Ukrainian fight—this is more than the number of tanks the city of Avdiivka had before the war. Moscow was forced to relocate units from other fronts to keep the offensive going, hence showing the extent to which it was ready to pay heavy losses for marginal gains.
The Ukrainians had their own problems when it came to the defense of the city. Their fortification was not only thin but also makeshift compared to the Russian sides in other locations. Satellite pictures revealed shallow trenches to the west of Avdiivka, which were far less formidable than the multi-layered defense and the intricate network of trenches and tank traps the Russians had built in the south. In private conversations, American officials confessed to being doubtful that Ukraine had not defensively prepared enough and that the gap had become very obvious when the Russians had broken through.
The comparison with the Russian engineering was even more remarkable. For example, near villages like Verbove, Russian positions were almost impregnable, while Ukrainian lines around Avdiivka were still exposed. Kyiv accepted that it was using scarce resources that were mainly directed towards offensive operations rather than digging in—a misstep that had costly consequences.
The loss of equipment was a stark reminder of the harsh arithmetic of war. According to Ukrainian intelligence information, Russia has lost more than 7,200 tanks and nearly 14,000 armored personnel carriers since the beginning of the invasion. About 50 combat vehicles were lost by Ukraine in Avdiivka, whereas the loss of Russian forces reached almost 700. To keep the offensive going, Moscow had to increasingly depend on lightly armored vehicles to transport troops, this being a clear indication of the pressure on its stock.
Western aid, including weaponry and ammunition, is essential for Ukraine to sustain its frontline. Ammunition and air-defense systems replenishments made operations possible, but there were political delays in the rechage, which obviously affected the battle. A lot of the Ukrainian officials were claiming that the loss of Avdiivka was not due to a lack of bravery but because the supplies that were needed were caught in holdups of bureaucracy and politics.
Besides, manpower has also been a major influence. The Russian forces clearly were relying on conscripts, prisoners, and recruits from poor regions, whereas the Ukrainian troops were mostly older, highly trained, and deeply motivated, although the average age on the front lines has now exceeded 40. A lot of the soldiers have been going without proper breaks for months, and this is taking its toll on them.
Furthermore, morale has been one of the issues that the Russian troops have faced. The leaked video shows the soldiers complaining about being disparaged and suffering dangerous missions, getting swallowed up due to bad leadership, lack of equipment, and so on. The Kremlin’s strategy of going on with slow advances while being open to extreme casualties has been like a thorn in the side of morale, although it keeps most soldiers in line through fear of punishment.
On a tactical level, capturing Avdiivka is what gives the Russian forces the possibility to advance a few steps further, but not too much, and expect a breakthrough. Russian troops are exhausted, and their reserves are running out. Ukraine is also setting up new defensive lines outside the city to which reinforcements are being sent, but these lines will not hold if there is no Western aid. Ammunition production in Europe is definitely going up, but the pace is still slow. Although U.S. weapons are already prepared for sending, the front delivery has been delayed by politics.
Eventually, the war has become a test of endurance rather than one of maneuver. Russia has gone through terrible losses, but it still has some reserves and can keep going at a very slow and tiring pace. Ukraine depends on Western support given regularly, and the determination of its troops to continue holding the line.
The Battle of Avdiivka is a mirror of the present situation in this conflict: very high costs, small changes in the territories, and results that are not only influenced by fighting but also by politics. It was a victory only in the Russian sense of the word, but one which might be paid for a lot more than the land taken.