Sanctions have also contributed to the difficulty. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a set of export control measures and financial sanctions by the West were put in place, which have resulted in limited access to advanced electronic devices and the necessary components. Supply chain problems have prolonged the timeframe of the Su-75 development, and now one can wonder if it will be mass-produced someday. In case a foreign buyer decides to acquire the aircraft, it would still be a very difficult process to try and escalate production.
On paper, the Su-75 looks good. It has one engine, can hide, and moves fast at Mach 1.8. It can fly far, up to 3,000 kilometers, and carry 7 tons. Its tech is easy to change, uses AI, and fits many smart bombs. This should draw in air forces that want to do a lot while spending less. They say it costs $30–40 million each, way less than the F-35, at least on paper.
But under the flashy brochures and airshow mockups, the Checkmate remains stalled at the prototype stage. Since it first debuted in 2021 at the MAKS air show, Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation and Sukhoi have continued to subject the jet to exhibitions, but it remains largely on paper. Official statements continuously vow production “around the corner,” but operational service and mass production remain distant notions.
The biggest challenge is the absence of committed purchasers. Russia’s initial target markets were the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa—countries that might want a stealth fighter but are unable to purchase the F-35. Interest was expressed by the UAE, Nigeria, Algeria, and India, but no orders have been signed.
Even playful marketing stunts, like handing out bottles of labeled cologne at airshows, haven’t translated into orders. As a defense analyst once put it, nations will “kick the tires” but not infrequently actually make a purchase.
Sanctions have added to the challenge. Western export controls and financial sanctions, instituted following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, have made access to sophisticated electronics and critical components difficult. Supply chain challenges have dragged out development, causing one to question whether the Su-75 will ever be mass-produced. Even if a foreign customer were to purchase it, scale-up would be a herculean task.
The war in Ukraine has also shifted Russia’s priorities in defense. Drones, missiles, and artillery control budgets, rather than long-term fighter programs. It is costly to develop a stealthy fighter such as the Su-75, and that cost is dwarfed by what it takes to support ground operations in an active hot zone.
Meanwhile, the nature of modern air war is changing. There has been little classic dogfighting in Ukraine, with both sides relying on long-range missiles and unmanned aircraft. Pricy manned aircraft are more and more vulnerable to cheap drone strikes, and that causes some nations to hesitate about heavily investing in vintage fighters. These new dynamics of warfare continue to dampen Checkmate’s market potential because future buyers would view drones and unmanned systems alongside expensive manned jets.
Russia has tried to partner to share the cost of development and production. There has been negotiation with the UAE to co-produce subsystems and composites, and a possible future unmanned version of the Checkmate. Incentives and potential technology transfer have tried to woo India as well, but indigenous fifth-generation fighter programs are underway there, and earlier experience in the Su-57 project has cooled its excitement. Political risks in the shape of possible U.S. sanctions also complicate any deal with New Delhi.
Most recently, Russia offered to involve Belarus in the venture, drawing on its industrial base and geographical position. Although Belarus might be able to offer electronics or assembly, its aerospace sector has been largely inactive, and economic pressure from sanctions renders substantive involvement improbable and possibly many years away.
The Su-75 Checkmate demonstrates the gulf between dreams and reality in modern defence projects. It appears wonderful on paper and in brochures, but trìû, financial issues, and changes in strategic priorities have held it back. Meanwhile, the Checkmate does more as a cautionary story than as a state-of-the-art combat aircraft: to design and sell new defence hardware in today’s world is a far more complex issue than dazzling airshow flybys would have us think.