The Crisis in Russia’s Carrier Fleet and Its Strategic Impact

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Formerly one of the most envied vessels in the Russian navy, Admiral Kuznetsov was a flying aircraft carrier designed to clearly demonstrate Soviet power to the entire planet. Its building, although it actually began in 1985, was such that the ship had already been dispatched for its first journey in the early 1990s, hence expected to stand for the strength and reach of the Soviet Union.

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On the contrary, it has hardly been able to celebrate its professional life, being more associated with obstructions, incidents, and the ever-increasing repair expenses than with any period of continuous operational work.

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The ship had been having problems from the very beginning. The circulating mazut is a heavy fuel with characteristics that to tar and is very inefficient as well as very hard on the engines. Thus, unlike the U.S. nuclear-powered carriers, Kuznetsov is very noisy and dirty. White, electrical, and engine problems have been so common that tugboats have become co-travelers of such ships.

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The carrier’s bad combat history is just one more reason for them to question her. Her inability to function correctly was the reason why the disappearance of several planes took place in her 2016 mission off the coast of Syria, rather than enemy attacks, to be more precise, short circuits in the arrestor wires and old launchers are the causes of the loss.

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Not only the ship but also the people who built and maintained her have been affected by the years that have passed, and the wear and tear that has changed the ship’s worries about a severe accident on board has spread. Consequently, Kuznetsov has often been characterized by accident-prone rather than war-prone issues by the people outside the naval profession.

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In 2017, the carrier got a permit to enter the dry dock at Murmansk in order to have a long-overdue renewal. Problems grew worse instead of abating during the repair period. One crisis that happened in 2018 was the sinking of the floating dock, which not only pulled a large crane down the ship’s deck but also caused serious damage as a result of the impact.

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Since then, there have been other accidents that plague the progress of the rehabilitation, including multiple fires—some with fatal outcomes—that caused even greater delays. Hardly ever was there cooperation between the time due for the repairs to begin and the work would actually start. Moreover, rumors stating that the labor has gradually come to a halt, and that an internal debate about the rescue of the ship rather than the shutting down of it has simmered, have also appeared.

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Keeping Kuznetsov from sinking is no longer a question of engineering skills but one of strategy. The war in Ukraine has been, in several ways, a setback for the Russian navy, consuming budget allocations, depriving the navy of certain resources, and making it difficult for the navy to get some technical parts under sanctions easily.

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Notwithstanding that, there are currently some reasons for wondering whether carriers will still have a place in the world of computer-guided missiles and drones. Ex-PacFleet boss Admiral Sergei Avakyants has even gone to the lengths of designating carriers “relics,” i.e., dead systems, and suggesting that future navies ought to be more heavily reliant on unmanned fighters and bombers.

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Officially, carriers are still part of the plans for the Northern/Southern Fleet of Russia, but without any ongoing new building project and with the destiny of Kuznetsov gradually increasing in doubt, that goal seems far away. The evolution of the ship’s disasters has become a mirror of the issues that the Russian navy is facing on a bigger scale: rundown infrastructures, shortage of capital, and a steadily weakening production line.

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Apart from that, as other big powers are increasing their car supply and going ahead with updating, Russia’s single ship looks getting close to the scrapheap. Should that be the case, Admiral Kuznetsov will not be a memory of a powerful flag, but rather of a warning—a dream compromised by technical bugs, money shortage, and the changes in modern naval warfare.

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